What's the size of prize?
A common question that often arises within category management is 'what is the size of prize?' and is often abbreviated to SOP. This question is asked for several reasons; it could be part of a listing story where the buyer will be looking at comparative options for space. It might form part of some promotional planning, it could be part of an NPD or shopper marketing rationale. Or it might be linked to a bigger category plan that aims to drive penetration and conversion.
Here are three ways I would consider Size of Prize
Under trade
One option could be to review the under trade for that range in a retailer, assessing the value of the gap if they performed in line with either the market or their own share of trade. You might make this more granular, where you look at the under trade in a certain group of shoppers or region and consider the size of prize that way.
Bottom up Rate of Sale based
This is a figure that everyone should be able to get to. How many products do you expect your product to sell in each store, every week? Then scale it up to cover all the stores you are likely to be listed in and the number of weeks in a year. If you are a fresh, high turnover product you might want to consider how many cases, crates or trolleys this also equates to with a consideration of waste (ensuring this number allows sell through within shelf life). You might also want to have some options across low, medium and high options.
Is it incremental?
If you are looking at a new listing or to add NPD, don't forget something needs to make space for that product. So your SOP at this granular level, needs to take account of whatever has been removed from the shelf too.
Increased conversion, penetration or spend from current shoppers
If you have a plan that looks at behaviour change, you might want to think about how it will impact category metrics to create a size of prize. This might also come into play with bigger category visions and strategies, that look at behaviour change.
Model different scenarios
Whichever route you are choosing, look at various scenarios. What is your target and what would an even better option look like? Consider benchmarks of other products, previous performance and any post launch reviews to help you.